Article: How Researchers Are Using AI to Find Out Where Lyme Disease Strikes Next

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AI can help alert people to the spreading risk of Lyme disease. Summer officially begins in a week, and millions of people will pour outdoors to enjoy nature in warm weather over the next few months. After a winter of being cooped up, going hiking or playing in the backyard brings joy and relaxation, but it also can bring the risk of contracting Lyme disease. If you live in traditional Lime regions such as New England, the upper Midwest, and the Northwest, Lyme disease remains a significant risk. As the most rapidly expanding vector-borne illness in North America, it continues to spread to new territories previously not associated with Lyme.

Lyme disease, first discovered in Old Lyme, Connecticut, in 1975, begins with a bite from a blacklegged or deer tick carrying a bacterium called Borrelia burgdorferi. During a blood meal, the tick transfers the bacterium to its human host. Lyme disease often but not always starts with a rash around the bite zone. Following infection, Lyme can progress through several stages, beginning with fever, headache, and fatigue (cdc.gov). Without proper antibiotic treatment, Lyme disease can spread throughout the body to the joints, heart, and nervous system. Untreated Lyme disease may result in arthritis-like symptoms such as swollen joints, aches, and pains. The effects on the heart can include palpitations, chest pain, and shortness of breath. Neurological symptoms can become chronic and take years to resolve, if ever. According to the Mayo Clinic Proceedings, neurological issues can include cognitive impairment, insomnia, malaise, and altered personality. (mayoclinic.org) Although rarely fatal, Lyme disease affects over 300,000 people a year in the US and, when untreated, causes substantial disability.

The blacklegged tick develops through four major stages, from egg to larva to nymph to adult. Most lime disease gets transmitted by nymphs, which develop into adults from late spring through the summer. Blacklegged tick nymphs will feed on humans. At only about half the size of a mustard seed, many people do not even detect when a nymph has attached to the body. The entire tick lifecycle ends with adults that prefer to parasitize whitetail deer mating in the fall, laying eggs, and dying. The adult blacklegged tick’s preference for deer over humans makes them unlikely to infect human hosts.

The blacklegged tick is always moving into new territories, and researchers are working on anticipating where they may go next. Researchers at the Universities of Maine and Illinois developed an AI tool to predict ticks and Lyme disease’s current and future expansion. (royalsocietypublishing.org) using data about current and historic places blacklegged ticks have lived, the presence of forests, and proximity rivers and streams. The AI used a technique called logistic regression. In this technique, the computer finds relationships between different types of information to make predictions. Their AI model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy and, therefore, Lyme to spread required forests and small to medium-sized rivers. Large rivers apparently post too great a barrier for the ticks to spread.

Summer promises warm weather and outdoor activities, but it also poses the risk of contracting Lyme disease from ticks carrying the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi. When left untreated, Lyme disease can progress from a local ring-shaped rash to severe and debilitating symptoms, from arthritis-like joint disorders to cardiovascular issues such as palpitations and chest pain. Moreover, Lyme can lead to long-term neurological problems, from cognitive impairment to personality changes. Previously contained to New England and parts of the upper Mid-West, Lyme disease and the blacklegged tick continue to spread. Based on the AI model predicting Lyme disease spread requiring forests and small to medium rivers, keep an eye on reports of Lyme disease breaking out near you, especially if close to rivers and forests. If you suspect Lyme disease, see a doctor to get proper antibiotics to prevent the progression of this debilitating disease.

Dr. Smith’s career in scientific and information research spans the areas of bioinformatics, artificial intelligence, toxicology, and chemistry. He has published a number of peer-reviewed scientific papers. He has worked over the past seventeen years developing advanced analytics, machine learning, and knowledge management tools to enable research and support high-level decision making. Tim completed his Ph.D. in Toxicology at Cornell University and a Bachelor of Science in chemistry from the University of Washington.

You can buy his book on Amazon in paperback and in kindle format here.