Article: Is the Coming of Super AI Imminent?

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As 2023 winds down, a reflection on the year pulls up several themes that have sincerely shaped the course of the world, from inflation to the events in Israel and Palestine. This year, a true stand-out theme emerged in the ballooning public awareness of artificial intelligence. The introduction of OpenAI’s large language models, such as ChatGPT and Bard, has taken the concept of artificial intelligence from the worlds of technology and academia into the public consciousness. With the marvelous capabilities of these tools came warnings from some tech leaders such as Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, of the potential threat to humanity at the hands of a super-intelligent AI that improves or evolves itself so quickly that it makes humanity obsolete. Such worries about safe AI led to the brief ousting of CEO Sam Alman by the board of directors of OpenAI.

Speculation about the evolution of a super AI does pull up the question of how a super-intelligent or general AI would experience the pressure of Darwinian evolution. In his monumental book On the Origin of Species, first published in 1856, Charles Darwin laid out his theory that species evolve through the process of variation that either helps or hinders individuals to survive in their environment.

“Owing to this struggle for life, any variation, however slight and from whatever cause proceeding, if it be in any degree profitable to an individual of any species, in its infinitely complex relations to other organic beings and to external nature, will tend to the preservation of that individual, and will generally be inherited by its offspring.”

-Charles Darwin

Often referred to as “survival of the fittest,” Darwin’s theory does not mean the strongest necessarily survive to reproduce, but the species best suited to the ever-changing environment will survive. For example, an animal that may not run faster than a competitor could still hunt more successfully in a pack than the faster individual predator, giving the pack animal a survival advantage. Darwin notes that the pressure on survival comes relentlessly and from every angle, from the weather to other animals and microorganisms.

In the context of never-ending pressure from the environment to survive, the question of how an AI must occupy a computer with its needs for power, silicon chips for processing, and memory to store information and hold the computer code that makes it run can survive. All of these elements currently rely on a very complex and, as evidenced in the COVID-19 pandemic, fragile supply lines, electricity, and highly specialized manufacturing processes. In comparison, biological life evolves and grows utilizing elements freely available on the Earth using minuscule proteins to assemble new cells and grow whole organisms based on information encoded in DNA. Plants, for example, form the basis of life because they can convert the energy of the sun plus carbon dioxide into sugars that power plants and animals.

As it stands today, any artificial intelligence must rely heavily on a very complex system of humans and machines and rare earth metals essential to function and survive. In contrast, biological organisms on Earth use relatively abundant and available chemicals such as water, oxygen, carbon dioxide, salt, and iron to survive and reproduce. Although it is the most common element in the Earth’s crust, silicon needs extensive refining and very complex manufacturing to turn into a microchip. Rare earth metals get their name because of their scarcity. With our massive infrastructure, farming, and communications, the world as we know it today could come crashing down in a disaster, impacting millions of people. Still, the fact that we can survive on the land with the most basic tools ensures that people will go on. The pressure of evolution does not let up, and at this point, we have created the most fragile of ecosystems for the early AIs to function and grow in. A super-intelligent AI could perceivably improve itself, but it cannot escape the pressures of evolution. A small break in the supply chain could doom a super AI, or a collapse in the supply of rare earth metals could stop the production of new machines. It is not a clear path to superintelligence and dominance in a continuously evolving world.

Dr. Smith’s career in scientific and information research spans the areas of bioinformatics, artificial intelligence, toxicology, and chemistry. He has published a number of peer-reviewed scientific papers. He has worked over the past seventeen years developing advanced analytics, machine learning, and knowledge management tools to enable research and support high-level decision making. Tim completed his Ph.D. in Toxicology at Cornell University and a Bachelor of Science in chemistry from the University of Washington.

You can buy his book on Amazon in paperback and in kindle format here.