Five Predictions for AI in 2026

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The longest night of the year for 2025 has passed, as well as Christmas and Hanukkah, and New Year’s stands between us and freshly minted 2026. The end of one year and the beginning of another entice both reflection on what has passed and projection for what the new year holds for us. 2025 saw an unprecedented expansion in artificial intelligence in the US and globally. AI and AI-related expenditures such as data centers, compute chips, and energy accounted for 6% of US GDP in 2025 (ey.com). The coming year looks to continue the application of AI to every sector of the economy and society. With an eye on AI and technology trends, I detail below five predictions for the coming year.

Autonomous taxis will take off in 2026. Autonomous cars, especially autonomous taxis, have grown in number and spread, including in San Francisco, CA, and Austin, Texas, with more successful pilot programs hitting the streets. With these successful pilots and municipalities adapting regulations to accommodate autonomous taxis, 2026 will see rapid growth in this transportation sector. Morgan Stanley states that the US is “nearing a major robotaxi breakout, with 2026 expected to mark the biggest step forward yet.”  They project ~33% growth in robotaxi activity and see 2026 as the first year where scaling becomes economically meaningful.

In another sector altogether, I predict that AI-generated drug discovery will become mainstream in the pharmaceutical industry. 2026 will not see an AI drug approval, as the most advanced AI drug, INSO18_055, developed using generative AI, is for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Drugs need to complete a significant Phase 3 trial to get FDA approval and go to market, but in 2026 the FDA should issue formal guidance on AI drug development. This formal guidance builds on the 2025 release of a draft guidance on AI drug development. The mainstreaming of AI-driven drug development sets the stage for a game-changing decrease in the time it takes to develop new lifesaving therapies.

The tragic Ukraine-Russia war has rapidly escalated the use and effectiveness of drones as inexpensive and lethal weapons used by both sides, with the establishment of drones controlled by wire. Wire-controlled drones avoid the communications-jamming defense developed to confuse enemy drones that rely on radio communication to function. This escalating problem of defending against drones will see the breakout of autonomous anti-drone drones in 2026. The application of AI-guided drone killing will not just affect the battlegrounds of Ukraine. In anticipation of significant events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the White House has announced a $500 million plan to equip state and local law enforcement with handheld tools and other technologies to detect and mitigate unauthorized drone threats in domestic airspace.

On a lighter note, 2026 will see a breakthrough as AI referees replace humans in many major sports as the arbiter of everything from calling balls and strikes in baseball to virtual assistant referees in soccer games, such as the FIFA World Cup. In 2026, Major League Baseball will replace the human umpire who stands behind the catcher and calls pitches balls or strikes. The highly skilled umpires who have to call the pitches coming into the plate at speeds sometimes of 100 miles per hour will now be left to a computer. Soccer fans will also see the addition of a virtual referee in the upcoming World Cup that gathers information from an AI chip embedded in the soccer ball. The chip will send information to human referees to help them make decisions on the field.

Finally, 2026 will see the breakout of agentic AI, which will, in many ways, garner greater growth and attention than generative AI such as ChatGPT and Gemini. Agentic AI does not just generate content; it directs workflows and processes. Agentic systems will add layers of memory, sensory integration, and decision-making on top of LLMs. 2025 felt like the pilot year for agentic AI, and 2026 will see it go mainstream. With agentic AI, expect shifts in job roles, with many mid-level positions redefined around working with agents rather than just specialized tasks.

2026 looks like another breakout year for AI across every level of the economy and society, from transportation and defence to healthcare and work. I am looking forward to watching the new year unfold and to seeing how AI continues to change our world. Next year at this time, I will revisit my predictions, see how I did, and make some more. Happy New Year!

Dr. Smith’s career in scientific and information research spans the areas of bioinformatics, artificial intelligence, toxicology, and chemistry. He has published a number of peer-reviewed scientific papers. He has worked over the past seventeen years developing advanced analytics, machine learning, and knowledge management tools to enable research and support high-level decision making. Tim completed his Ph.D. in Toxicology at Cornell University and a Bachelor of Science in chemistry from the University of Washington.

You can buy his book on Amazon in paperback and in kindle format here.